German Aluminium Industry to Remain Under Pressure in 2026: Production Declines & Scrap Shortage
Meta Description: Germany's aluminium industry faces sustained pressure in 2026, with Q1 recycled aluminium output down 3%, extrusion production falling 4%, widespread scrap shortages, and 57% of firms expecting no year-end improvement, per Aluminium Deutschland.
Germany’s aluminium industry has failed to regain growth momentum at the start of 2026, with key production segments running below prior-year levels and most companies bracing for prolonged weakness, according to industry association Aluminium Deutschland. A full 57% of surveyed firms do not expect business conditions to improve by the end of 2026.
Q1 2026 Production Overview
In the first quarter of 2026, Germany produced 684,564 tonnes of recycled aluminium, representing a 3% year-on-year decline. Output of semi-finished aluminium products also edged down 1% to 568,688 tonnes, with no clear signs of a recovery emerging early in the year.
Rob van Gils, President of Aluminium Deutschland, noted that the industry continues to operate within a challenging economic and structural environment. “Isolated positive developments do not change the fact that key segments are under pressure. Without a noticeable improvement in the business environment, the situation will not improve sustainably,” he stated.
Recycling Sector: Remelter Declines Offset Refinery Gains
The country’s aluminium recycling segment delivered mixed results overall. Refiners increased production by 2% to 128,639 tonnes, but remelters recorded a 4% drop to 555,925 tonnes, making them the primary driver of weakness in the recycling sector.
Tight raw material markets are amplifying pressure across the industry: 85% of companies report shortages of aluminium scrap. This scarcity poses a core challenge for the recycling sector, as scrap is the essential input for resource-efficient and cost-competitive secondary aluminium production.
Semi-Finished Products: Extrusion Segment Hit Hardest
Performance across semi-finished aluminium products remains subdued. Rolled product production dipped 1% to 452,894 tonnes, while extruded products saw a steeper 4% decline to 115,794 tonnes.
The extrusion segment continues to be weighed down by weak demand from key downstream sectors, most notably construction and automotive manufacturing.
Industry Outlook: Cyclical Weakness and Structural Risks
Survey data aligns with the soft production figures: 66% of companies rate their order situation as poor or very poor, and 71% report low capacity utilisation.
Beyond near-term cyclical headwinds, the industry faces deeper structural risks to its domestic footprint. 76% of firms consider it unlikely or impossible to achieve climate neutrality by 2045 while maintaining industrial production in Germany.
Companies are responding to the prolonged downturn with cost-cutting programmes, capacity adjustments, and relocation decisions, including job cuts, production closures, and shifts of operations abroad.
Aluminium Deutschland has called for improved policy and market framework conditions to secure domestic production, employment, and industrial transformation. The association identifies competitive energy prices, reduced bureaucracy, improved scrap availability, and long-term planning certainty as critical factors to support sustained production and investment in Germany’s aluminium sector.
